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Statistical innovations

The models behind the maps

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The beta-binomial mixture model

  • Fitting it by expectation–maximization
  • A full Bayesian treatment
  • Nailing down the posterior on the number of blocs

What’s next

  • Mixture of experts
  • Nonparametric approaches
  • Time and space

Back to pottery

The same ideas, applied to pottery decoration at Lake Chad Basin sites (O’Brien, Lin & MacEachern 2016).

Stacked colored bars showing inferred cultural periods by depth for excavation units at Lake Chad Basin sites

Cultural periods by depth across excavation units at Lake Chad Basin sites, from the pottery-decoration mixture model.

Other examples

  • Hannah and propaganda
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